Well, it could be if Matt Trainer is right.
Click on that little link there guys and watch Matt’s videos, then READ the comments. This is scary, scary stuff and the time to act is NOW.
Here’s my take on Matt’s position and yes, y’all can violently disagree with me.
But I see a cloud on the horizon and it’s going to cast a huge, huge shadow.
Here’s why:
People, it’s not going to happen. Matt’s prediction? The end of Internet marketing? No. Really. Trust me on this. Know why? Because it’s ALREADY happening. Make no mistake about it. The world of marketing and media IS changing. So is the way people interact with messages and how those people perceive those messages and how they pass those messages on.
And how they IGNORE those messages.
The democratization of distribution and the massive drops in prices of content creation and dissemination have seen to this. Think broadband. Think iPhone. Think Flipcam. Think RSS.
Think WordPress. Think social media. Cheap production affordability; easy production ability; massive distribution opportunity.
In just three years, the ABILITY to create content and get it online and out into the marketplace has become faster and cheaper, thereby making it more widely available. This is chaos theory in marketing at work guys: sensitive dependence on initial conditions; rapid divergence of nearby trajectories, and strange attractors.
It’s not what people do that’s so vital here but WHY they do it.
Matt, if you read this, I think the “happening”—the event, “the beginning of the end”, whatever name we give it—I think it all started in the early 2000s … AFTER the dot com bubble burst.
I think that crash did two things. First, it thinned the herd. Second, it taught the savviest of minds (the budding IM clan) to learn from the mistakes of other people. These two things might not appear to that significant. But let’s look a little deeper.
Four short years ago (October, 2006) Google bought YouTube for $1.65 BILLION … and at that point, YouTube, founded in February 2005, was only 20 months old.
Read that again.
True, not everyone will create a Facebook ($700 million in ad revenue this year, up from nearly ZERO two years ago) or a YouTube. But regardless, to thrive over the next 5 years, the IM community must relearn, must regroup, must refocus, and must retool.
People, it might well be time to re-niche that niche. I think Matt’s right. LISTEN TO HIM!
Three to five oh-so-short-years from now, content-rich, highly popular companies that aren’t even founded yet and that make and sell nothing of any great worth or importance will be bringing in an average of $150 million per year in ad revenues EACH, AND within 24 to 48 months of having been founded, those companies will be bought and sold by bigger corporations for multiple hundreds of millions of dollars. They will pull off everything that the dot comers promised but couldn’t deliver.
And I see many of those deep pocketed corporations being involved in … drumroll please: advertising creation and content distribution. For which read: media.
Along with companies like Time Warner and Disney you’ll find other, I see larger conglomerates snapping up these “smaller” outfits. Companies with the kind of buying power that it’s hard to fathom, and with names you may not be familiar with: Publicis, Omnicom, and WPP.
Never heard of any of these companies? That’s because they’re media companies run by corporate accountants. But between them they own strings of major ad agencies … agencies with annual billings into the hundreds of billions.
Ad agencies such as DDB, Digitas, Leo Burnett, Saatchi & Saatchi, Chiat/Day, TBWA, BBDO, Goodby Silverstein & Partners, Grey Global Group, Ogilvy & Mather, Young & Rubicam, JWT, GSD&M. And others.
If this happens, guess what will happen to the cost of media? Might it drop like a stone? No. Think diamonds and you’ll be closer to the mark: whoever controls the supply controls the demand. And with control of demand comes control of price. Time and money are inversely connected: to save one you must spend a lot of the other. Or, you must pay whatever the going rate is to the people that can do what you cannot do or don’t want to do.
So, yes, I see Fortune 500 companies spreading out, but I also see them spending money to outsource their media, the channels that’ve just been snapped up by the likes of Publicis et al. Are ya seeing a pattern here?
Will this happen for sure? Only time will tell. If it doesn’t happen, I’ll look like a twonk and you can all tell me how wrong I was. But if it does happen, you read it here first.
But in the meanwhile, and as Matt advises, I’ll be taking action and kicking ass.