Why you must not quit on Substack
You're competing against fewer people than you think.
Gary Bloomer | SHAKING THE TREE # 201
Following on from my post about expecting to labour away for two years before you see a meaningful return on your article creation efforts, here are a few thoughts on why you should not quit on Substack (or on any other newsletter platform for that matter!)
OK, so, if you’re writing away on Substack and you’re posting on a regular basis, right—RIGHT?—but you’re wondering why your growth feels slow, here’s a hard truth:
Most writers quit before their writing generates either attention or traction.
But when do they give up?
And why?
Let’s dig in …
First, the bad news: the exact statistics on Substack attrition are a tad foggy.
Sadly, and although they boast 5 million paid subscribers, Substack doesn’t release official statistics of the activities and habits of its users, which is a bummer.
However, third-party analyses and creator surveys suggest a brutal pattern:
Within 3 months 50% of new writers on Substack stop posting regularly.
By 6 months 70-80% have either quit or their newsletters are inactive.
After 1 year 10-15% are still consistently publishing.
This means most writers bail before hitting even 20-30 posts—far short of the critical mass needed to build an audience.
READ THAT AGAIN!
Now then, newsletters can die for any number of reasons: author boredom; disinterest; lack of time; family or work pressures … or any of the above.
However, three of the leading reasons why authors abandon their newsletters are because they:
Set unrealistic expectations. Many people on Substack think it’s a "get rich quick" platform. It’s not. Not at all! A large number of people who quit expect some sort of viral growth from their first 10 posts and when they don’t see those sorts of results, they get bored.
Tire of playing the long game. Let’s be honest for a moment: writing and publishing to an empty room (or to a tiny list of friends/family) is kind of demoralizing. Worse still is publishing to a list of under 200 people and only seeing results of 50 people reading your stuff. Seriously, folks? Yes. Sigh.
In the absence of instant validation, doubt quickly creeps in.
Underestimate the work involved. Writing consistently is hard work. Finding your voice and getting into a groove takes time. Added to this, simply finding the time to come up with something fresh, original, compelling, and valuable … week after week … is draining (unless you have a content creation system and a series of templates). On top of all this, marketing your work can be even harder. Most writers simply aren’t prepared to train for the marathon.
The tipping point that most writers who quit will never see …
Substack success follows the "100 subscriber rule":
Once you cross ~100 paid subscribers, growth often begins to compound. Note here that that’s OFTEN, but not always. I’ve been writing and publishing in Substack since May, 2023 and I’m still at the sub 200 level
However, and this is the kicker: 90% of writers quit before they get there.
Why? Because reaching 100 true fans takes:
Creating 50+ high-quality posts (most quit before 20).
Investing 6-12 months of consistent effort (most quit by month 3).
The good news for you though (because you’re not going to quit, are you?—ARE YOU?—is that the barrier to entry isn’t set that high!
Since most writers quit publishing on Substack way before they begin seeing tangible results, simply by outlasting them you gain a massive advantage.
The algorithms (and readers) reward persistence.
The longer you stay, the more your voice sharpens.
Quitters leave gaps in the market—you can fill them.
So, what efforts ought you to make into a habit over the next three months?
Commit to writing and publishing 50 posts before judging your success.
Focus on improving your writing, voice, and tone rather than just focusing on publishing.
Accept that Year 1 is for building and that Year 2 is for growth.
The mathematics of seeing eventual success with a Substack site (or with any newsletter or blog) boil down to one simple equation:
Most writers quit way too soon. So, don’t be like most writers.
Getting the sorts of results other people will never see involves putting in the sort of investment of time, energy, and enthusiasm that most people will never muster.
If you haven’t started yet, now is as good a time as any (the time is going to pass anyway!).
If you’ve already started, keep going.
And if you’re already going strong and getting stronger, don’t quit.
As of writing this (early April, 2025) I’m coming up for the two year birthday of my efforts and although there have been time when I’ve been tempted to pack it all in, now, I’m more enthusiastic than ever.
Give it a go. See where it takes you.
As always, thanks for reading.
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P.S. Next time on Shaking the Tree … Adopting a 10,000 ft viewpoint
ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Originally from the U.K., Gary Bloomer is a writer, branding advocate, marketing specialist, and an award-winning graphic designer.
His design work has been included in Creative Review (one of the UK’s largest design magazines). Since 2009, he has answered over 5,000 marketing and business questions in the Know-How Exchange of MarketingProfs.com, placing him among the top 3% of contributors. He lives in Wilmington, Delaware, USA.